About Meta Guess
Dedicated to exploring predictions, challenging assumptions, and offering informed insights across various domains.
Our Mission
At Meta Guess, we believe in the power of predictive analysis and the value of testing our assumptions against reality. We serve as a platform for curious minds to engage with future trends, challenge conventional wisdom, and develop sharper analytical thinking through prediction markets, forecasting challenges, and data-driven insights.
Our platform fosters a community where expertise across diverse domains converges, creating a unique space for learning and competitive engagement based on predictive accuracy rather than mere opinion.
What We Do
Meta Guess provides a structured environment for:
- Prediction Challenges — Test your foresight against others on topics ranging from global events to technological breakthroughs
- Analytical Resources — Access data-driven insights and research to inform your predictions
- Community Discussion — Engage with fellow prediction enthusiasts to share methodologies and refine your forecasting abilities
- Performance Tracking — Monitor your predictive accuracy over time and identify areas for improvement
Our Values
Our approach is guided by several core principles:
- Epistemic Humility — Acknowledging the limits of our knowledge and the complexity of the world
- Evidence-Based Reasoning — Prioritizing data, logical consistency, and empirical verification
- Intellectual Growth — Learning from mistakes and continually refining our mental models
- Collaborative Intelligence — Recognizing that diverse perspectives often yield more accurate forecasts
Our Audience
Meta Guess serves a diverse community of individuals who share a passion for:
- ✓Probability and statistical thinking
- ✓Future trends and technological forecasting
- ✓Social, economic, and political analysis
- ✓Decision science and cognitive biases
- ✓Competitive forecasting and prediction markets
Join Us
Ready to test your predictive capabilities and engage with a community of analytical thinkers?
Get StartedOur Team
Alex Morgan
Founder & Lead Analyst
Former quantitative researcher with expertise in forecasting methodologies and prediction markets.
Sophia Chen
Data Science Director
PhD in Statistical Analysis with a focus on probabilistic modeling and Bayesian inference.
Marcus Williams
Community Strategist
Background in behavioral economics and community building for collaborative intelligence projects.
Our Methodology
Our prediction methodology is built on rigorous statistical foundations and best practices from forecasting research. We believe in transparency, continuous learning, and scientific integrity.
Core Principles
- 1Bayesian Reasoning: We encourage updating beliefs based on new evidence and quantifying uncertainty in predictions.
- 2Calibration Focus: Our scoring system rewards accuracy and well-calibrated confidence intervals over extreme predictions.
- 3Base Rate Consideration: We emphasize the importance of historical frequencies and statistical base rates.
- 4Diverse Perspectives: We aggregate multiple viewpoints to reduce individual biases and improve accuracy.
Scoring Framework
Our scoring system uses the Brier score for binary predictions and logarithmic scoring rules for probabilistic forecasts. This encourages honest reporting of beliefs and rewards both accuracy and appropriate confidence levels.
Quality Assurance
All prediction questions undergo peer review for clarity, resolvability, and relevance. We maintain strict resolution criteria and use multiple independent sources for outcome verification.
Ready to test your predictive abilities?
Join our community of forecasters, analysts, and curious minds to challenge your assumptions and refine your predictive thinking.